基于GTAP模型对多哈回合非农产品关税减让可能效应的一般均衡分析  

An Evaluation of NAMA Negotiation in Doha Round by Using GTAP Model

作　　者：黄鹏[1] 金柳燕[2] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学应用经济学博士后流动站,上海WTO事务咨询中心产业分析部,上海200336 [2]上海WTO事务咨询中心产业分析部,上海200336

出　　处：《世界贸易组织动态与研究（上海对外贸易学院学报）》2010年第1期12-18,共7页Journal of Shanghai University of International Business and Economics

摘　　要：非农产品市场准入谈判是多哈回合重点议题之一,且至今仍未达成最终成果。2008年7月举行的世界贸易组织小型部长级会议曾在多哈回合非农产品市场准入问题上,各方曾根据"主席案文"①,就瑞士公式系数达成共识,按约定的系数和灵活性安排,进行关税减让。非农产品关税减让将对中国经济和对外贸易产生重要影响。本文将采用目前国际通用的全球贸易分析项目(GTAP模型),来模拟WTO非农产品关税减让对WTO主要成员方,尤其是中国,宏观和产业经济的影响。Non-Agricultural Market Access has been one of the key issues in the Doha Round for nearly 8 years and it still hasn＇t reached a final outcome yet. In July 2008, WTO held a mini-ministerial meeting. The parties reached a consensus on the Swiss formula coefficient based on the ＂Chairman＇s text＂, including the agreed coefficient and principles of the flexibilities. Since non- agricultural tariff reduction has a significant impact on China＇s economy and foreign trade, this paper will use the GTAP model to evaluate this impact by simulating the macroeconomic and industrial effects bring by the reduction on the main WTO members, especially on China.

关 键 词：NAMA GTAP 一般均衡 瑞士公式 效应 

分 类 号：F745.0[经济管理—国际贸易]