东北三省玉米初霜冻时空分布特征及预报方法探讨  

Discussion on Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Early Frost and Its Forecasting Method of Maize in the Three Northeastern Provinces

作　　者：杜春英[1] 李帅[1] 郭建平[2] 姜丽霞[1] 宫丽娟[1] 王秋京[1] 王晾晾[1] 王萍[1] 纪仰慧[1] 朱海霞[1] 闫平[1] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省气象科学研究所,黑龙江哈尔滨150030 [2]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2010年第1期237-240,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD04B02);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF-09-13)

摘　　要：基于1971～2007年东北三省32个气象站的初霜冻日期和9月逐日最低气温资料，利用气候统计方法分析了东北三省初霜冻发生规律和时空变化特征，采用积温变率法对东北三省初霜冻进行初步预报。结果表明，东北三省初霜冻的发生时间不存在规律性，呈波动式变化，辽宁省初霜冻发生日期呈现推迟趋势；初霜冻出现时间在地域上呈由北向南逐渐推迟趋势，黑龙江省出现最早，辽宁省出现最晚，反映了区域热量差异，黑龙江省最易发生初霜冻，粮食生产受初霜冻影响的风险最大；积温变率法预报初霜冻，检验预报准确率在70％以上．预报效果较好，方法可用。Based on the early frost date from 32 meteorological stations in the three northeastern provinces during 1971 to 2007 and minimum temperature data from Sep. and by using climate statistical method, temporal and spatial characteristics of early frost were analyzed, and the early frost was forecasted by the use of accumulated temperature variability in the three northeastern provinces. The results showed that time of early frost occurred in the absence of clear rules and its changes were fluctuations. The date of the early frost had postponed in Liaoning Province. Times of the early frost had postponed gradually from north to south, there was the earliest emergence in Heilongjiang Province and the latest in Liaoning Province, which reflected regional heat differences. There was the most prone to early frost in Heilongjiang Province, and there was the largest risk in grain production. We forecasted early frost by the use of accumulated temperature variability and tested prediction accuracy rate of more than 70%, it was a better forecasting method that could be used.

关 键 词：玉米 初霜冻 积温变率法 预报 

分 类 号：S513[农业科学—作物学]