江苏省龙卷风灾害风险评价模型研究  

Disaster Risk Assessment of Tornado in Jiangsu Province

作　　者：许遐祯[1,2] 潘文卓[1,3] 缪启龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]江苏省气候中心,江苏南京210008 [3]杭州市气象局,浙江杭州310051

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2009年第6期792-797,共6页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：江苏省气象灾害重点实验室资助项目(KLME050103)

摘　　要：在分析江苏省龙卷风气候特征的基础上,建立了以江苏省为例的龙卷风灾害风险性评价模型,确定水域面积、海拔高度、人均国民生产总值、人口密度、龙卷密度和龙卷灾害综合灾度这6个因子作为评估指标,利用层次分析法确定各因子的权重,计算出江苏省各市龙卷风灾害风险度并进行了风险度区划。结果表明,苏州、无锡、南通为龙卷灾害高度风险区,常州、南京为较高风险区,镇江、泰州、徐州、盐城、扬州、连云港为中度风险区,宿迁和淮安为低度风险区。Based on the analysis of climatic characteristics of tornados in Jiangsu Province, a tornado disaster risk assessment model for Jiangsu Province has been established. Six factors,i, e. waters area, elevation, gross national product per capita, population density, tornado density and tornado disaster were chosen as assessment indexes, and their weighting are determined with the analytic hierarchy process. The tornado disaster＇s risk level for each city of Jiangsu province was calculated and rated. The result shows that Suzhou, Wuxi and Nantong belong to the highest risk region of tornado disaster; Changzhou and Nanjing belong to the higher risk region ; Zhengjiang, Taizhou, Xuzhou, Yancheng, Yangzhou and Liangyungang belong to the medium risk region;and Suqian and Huai＇ an belong to the low risk region.

关 键 词：龙卷风 江苏 风险评估 层次分析法 频数分布 

分 类 号：P425.61[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]