内蒙中西部土壤水分统计插值模型试验  

An experiment research on soil moisture interpolation model over Western and Central Inner Mongolia

作　　者：刘雪琴[1,2] 李宁[1,2] 温玉婷[1,2] 崔维佳[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [3]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《气象科学》2009年第6期734-741,共8页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40771008);国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD20B01;2007BAC29B05;2008BAK50B08);北京市城市气象研究所科技项目

摘　　要：选取内蒙古中西部地区乌拉特中旗、二连浩特和乌海3个观测站点2001年4月至2004年11月的土壤水分实测数据和同期的地面气象逐日观测资料,运用前期降水指数法原理、水量平衡原理并结合最小二乘法建立了一个土壤水分插值模型,探讨了此模型的模拟优度及外推的可行性,运用F检验和残差分析来进行拟合值检验。并对2004年3站的土壤水分插补值进行了验证。为日后土壤水分对沙尘暴贡献度的区划研究提供数据支持。In this paper, the authors choose Erlianhot, Wulatezhongqi and Wuhai in Western and Central Inner Mongolia as observation sites. In order to obtain the daily soil moisture values that match the soil temperature, air temperature and precipitation changes over time in dust storms-occurred days, we set up a soil moisture interpolation model by using the measured soil moisture data and daily observed data in the three meteorological observation stations synchronously from April 2001 to November 2004. This model is based on antecedent precipitation index principle, the water equilibrium theory and general principles of least squares. The analog goodness and the possibility of extrapolation of this model are discussed and the goodness of fit is tested by using of F-test and residual analysis. Also, the model is proofed by the extrapolated soil moisture values of the three stations in 2004. The study in this paper will provide a useful reference value for the following work in the contribution of soil moisture for sandstorm＇s dangerous division.

关 键 词：干旱半干旱地区 土壤水分 回归方程 插值模型 

分 类 号：O212.1[理学—概率论与数理统计] S152.7[理学—数学]