逐步消空法在上海雷电潜势预报中的应用  

The application of step-wise decreasing FAR method to thunderstorm potential trend forecast

作　　者：杨仲江[1,2] 唐晓峰[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学大气物理学院,南京210044 [3]南京信息工程大学电子与信息工程学院,南京210044

出　　处：《气象科学》2009年第6期810-814,共5页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：2008年公益性行业科研专项(GYHY200806014)

摘　　要：利用上海地区1999—2007年的探空资料、地面观测资料和历史天气图资料,从雷暴发生的形势场入手,分析上海地区雷暴主要类型。选取合理、适当的对流参数对于短时局地强雷雨天气的潜势预测、强度判别是有指示意义的。利用天气型、K指数、沙氏指数以及对流有效位能作为预报因子,采用逐步消空法找出雷暴识别指标集合,变小概率事件为条件概率下的大概率事件,进而提高雷电潜势预报准确率。The sounding data, ground alyze the main types of thunderstorms in S observation data and weather chart information are used to anhanghai, started from the situation field of thunderstorms. A detail method of recognizing thunderstorm was introduced by step-wise decreasing FAR. The synoptic pattern, K index, SI index and Convective Available Potential Energy （CAPE） were used as the factors to produce the indicator set of thunderstorm recognition ,which were selected to be reasonable for the potential trend forecast of strong thunderstorms in the short-term weather. It can be seen that a method to improve the forecast accuracy of rare events is to turn the rare events from very little probability into large probability by conditional probability .

关 键 词：逐步消空法 高空槽 雷电潜势预报 强对流参数 

分 类 号：P446[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]