基于系统动力学的我国竞技体育可持续发展能力研究  

Research on Chinese Competitive Sports Sustainable Development Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：邵桂华[1] 满江虹[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学体育学院,山东济南250061 [2]山东大学管理学院,山东济南250100

出　　处：《体育科学》2010年第1期36-43,69,共9页China Sport Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(09CTY002)

摘　　要：以系统整体思考为基础,以系统动力学为工具,分析了影响我国竞技体育事业可持续发展的内外因素,以"人"和"资金"为核心状态变量,通过绘制因果关系图、流图并编写系统动力学方程式,构建了我国竞技体育可持续发展的系统动力学模型。利用VensimPLE软件进行了从2006—2020年的系统仿真。仿真结果表明,当前我国竞技体育系统对国家财政拨款具有强烈依赖性,冠军成本过高,自我造血功能匮乏,长期可持续发展能力不足。改变国家体育投资结构,在减小竞技体育投资比例以便为全民健身事业创造更大发展空间的同时,科学调整竞技体育"科研经费比例"和"产业资金比例"并由此生成"自我发展"机制,才是我国竞技体育系统可持续发展的健康模式。Based on system thinking and system dynamics theory, this paper analyzes the main internal and external factors influencing the Chinese competitive sports sustainable development, taking the human resources and financing as the core level variable, makes the causal loop diagrams and stork and flow maps, write its system dynamics equations, and builds the whole system dynamics model of Chinese competitive sport. Using the Vensim PLE software as tools, simulate this model from 2006--2020. The result indicates that the current competitive sports system of China strongly depends on the state financing, the cost of champion is too high, so it has little ability of self-improvement and sustainable development. Changing the construction of state sports financial allocation, reducing the investment ratio of competitive sports system, giving the national fitness a wider development space, adjusting the research funding ratio and sports industry ratio of competitive sports scientifically in order to create its ability of self-development are the best model of sustainable development of Chinese competitive sports system.

关 键 词：竞技体育 可持续发展 系统动力学 中国 

分 类 号：G80-05[文化科学—运动人体科学]