设计波高推算的一种新模型  

A New Model for Predicating the Design Wave Heights

作　　者：王莉萍[1] 代伟[1] 齐莹[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学数学科学学院,山东青岛266071

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第1期54-58,共5页Periodical of Ocean University of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40776006);上海台风基金项目(2009ST05);山东省创新计划项目(SDYC08008)资助

摘　　要：考虑台风影响海域的设计波高,结合复合极值理论和最大熵原则,构造了1种新型的具有4个待定参量和1个台风频次参量的poisson-最大熵分布函数模型,并推导出求解参数的方程组,参数的数值解可通过年极值实测数据的期望、方差、偏度和峰度得到。以黄海某观测站26 a极值波高的实测数据为例计算了新模型中4个待定参量和多年一遇设计波高,并与传统常用计算方法得到的结果进行比较。比较表明,新模型相比传统方法具有一定的优势。To improve the predication of the design wave heights for sea areas influenced by typhoons, a new probability model having four parameters and a typhoon frequency parameter is constructed by combining the compound extreme value theory and the maximum entropy principle. A set of equations is re-derived from which the four parameters can be numerically solved in terms of the expected value, variance, skewness and kurtosis, which can be estimated from the observed data of annualextreme wave heights. A sequence of 26 annual extreme wave heights measured at a station in the Yellow Sea is used to determine the four parameters and then calculate the design wave heights. Detailed comparisons are made with the results given by the traditional methods, and the comparative results show that the new model has some advantages over the traditional ones.

关 键 词：台风 复合极值分布 最大熵原则 poisson-最大熵分布函数 设计波高 

分 类 号：P731.22[天文地球—海洋科学]