快速公交车站客流预测模型问题研究  

Study on Passenger Volume Forecasting Model of BRT Station

作　　者：李明 王海霞[2] 

机构地区：[1]中铁工程设计咨询集团有限公司线站院,北京100020 [2]交通部科学研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《道路交通与安全》2009年第4期48-53,共6页Road Traffic & Safety

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划")大城市快捷客运交通系统设计关键技术的研究"(No.2006AA11Z203)

摘　　要：在分析传统"四阶段"客流预测方法优缺点的基础上,引入了"出行者收入水平"这一概念,重新定义了出行方式阻抗函数,提出了一种快速公交车站进出站客流预测的"四阶段"预测法的改进方法。选取阜石路快速公交系统中的甘家口车站进行实例分析,对车站高峰小时进出站客流量进行了预测。Based on analysis of advantages and disadvantages of conventional four-stage passenger volume forecasting model,＂Traveler Income Levels＂is proposed.A new travel mode resistance function is defined,and also,a new improved four-stage passenger volume forecasting model is proposed,which could be applied to forecasting station passenger volume of entering and leaving the BRT station.Finally,Ganjiakou station of Fushi Road BRT system is set as an example.The passenger volume of entering and leaving the Ganjiakou station during peak hours is forecast.

关 键 词：快速公交车站 客流预测 模型 

分 类 号：U293.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] U491.17[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]