考虑土性参数概率分布对边坡可靠度的影响  

Effect of Soil Parameters in Different Probability Distribution Type on Reliability of Slope

作　　者：范昭平[1,2] 吴勇信[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学岩土力学与堤坝工程教育部重点实验室,南京市210098 [2]河海大学岩土工程科学研究所,南京市210098

出　　处：《公路》2010年第1期14-17,共4页Highway

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大计划资助项目;项目编号No.90815020

摘　　要：采用基于Morgenstern-Price法的Mont-Carlo模拟,分别对强度参数c、φ服从不同概率分布函数时的边坡稳定性进行了可靠度对比分析,并对不同概率分布强度参数的变异性与边坡稳定性之间的关系进行了分析,探讨了失稳概率对强度参数变异性变化的敏感性。发现强度参数无论服从正态分布还是对数正态分布,安全系数均值都变化不大,但是边坡的失稳概率却随着参数变异性的增大而增大,强度参数服从正态分布时的失稳概率要大于服从对数正态分布情况下的失稳概率,得出边坡的失稳概率都对内摩擦角φ的变异性反应要敏感于对黏聚力c的变异性。Morgenstern-Price method with Mont-Carlo simulation is explored for analysis of reliability of slope considering soil parameters c and φ demanding the different probability distribution functions, which are normal distribution and lognormal distribution. Moreover, the relation between the variability of soil parameters and slope stability is analyzed and the sensitivity of probability of failure to uncertain variability of friction, cohesion is investigated. The results show that the mean of factor of safety is almost same in the different probability distribution type, while the probability of failure increases with the variation growing. In addition, the probability of failure in normal distribution is larger than the one in lognorreal case. Furthermore the probability of failure of slope is more sensitivity to friction than to cohesion.

关 键 词：边坡 可靠度 概率分布函数 变异性 失稳概率 敏感性 

分 类 号：U416.1[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]