基于自然脆弱性的中国典型小麦旱灾风险评价  

Assessment on Typical Drought Risk for Wheat Production in China Based on Natural Vulnerability

作　　者：王志强[1,2,3,4] 方伟华[1,3,4] 史培军[1,3,4] 何飞[1,3,4] 徐宏[1,3,4] 

机构地区：[1]民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [2]民政部国家减灾中心,北京100053 [3]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [4]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2010年第1期6-12,共7页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家重点基础研究计划(2006CB400505);国家自然科学基金项目(40601002)

摘　　要：虽然中国的粮食产量在过去的几十年中一直保持着稳定的增长,但全球气候变暖及其可能导致的干旱的增加,将对中国的粮食安全产生一定的影响。基于自然脆弱性农作物旱灾风险理论,在利用中国40年的日气象数据刻画出我国小麦的旱灾致灾因子强度,利用EPIC(environmental policy integrated climate)中的农作物生长模块模拟出典型小麦品种的自然脆弱性曲线的基础上,对中国小麦旱灾风险的时空分布规律进行了定量评价。结果表明:小麦旱灾产量损失率从西北向东南方向递减;中国农牧交错带是小麦旱灾产量损失率的界线;小麦旱灾脆弱性的非线性特点,对灾情损失具有一定的放大和缩小作用。Food security is the base of human survival and national stability., of which food supply-demand balance variation and its induced food price fluctuation are the two major concerns. Global food production has been kept on increase since 2000, though in a slow pace, which should be able to meet the basic diet requirement. According to the 4th IPCC report, however, from the end of 2007, the worldwide food supply problem has been paid great attention to due to a sky rocket of food price. The earth is getting warmer and the frequency of drought is increased. Consequently, the intensification of water stress to crops, resulted from both the long term climate change and increase of extreme weather events, may lead to the reduction of crop yield and the increase of drought disasters. To understand the mechanism of crop drought disaster process is the key to the understanding of food security and hence a possible solution to the problem. In the past researches, the concepts of physical vulnerability and social vulnerability are not always yet explicitly distinguished or separated regarding to agricultural drought disaster risk assessment, which restricts the understanding of process-based mechanism of disaster risk dramatically. The major focuses of studies on drought disaster risk assessment range from statistical analysis and probability analysis to prediction of drought hazard or disaster losses, whilst few attached importance to the quantitative separation of physical and social vulnerahilities. The goals of this paper are to explore and quantify the physical vulnerability and drought hazard and risk. The detailed process is as follows： Firstly, agricultural drought disaster risk assessment model is developed based on the physical vulnerability of crops. This model covers agricultural drought hazard possibility distribution estimation, physical vulnerability curve estimation, land use-based exposure assessment, coping capacity integration and risk assessment. Secondly, a case study on two typical wheat species in

关 键 词：脆弱性 风险评价 旱灾 EPIC模型 小麦产量 中国 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]