国际热钱与国际资产价格波动  

The International Hot Money and the Price Fluctuation of the International Asset

作　　者：韩立岩[1] 谢飞[1] 杨捷[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京市100191

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2010年第1期69-72,共4页China Business and Market

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"金融风暴过程中资产价格波动及对中国的影响"(项目编号:70841019);教育部应急课题"国际热钱与资产价格波动监测与预警"(项目编号:2009JYJR034)的部分成果

摘　　要：对冲基金规模与主要证券市场指数及代表性商品价格变动的相关度具有时变性特征,相关度的聚集意味着资产价格泡沫发起;国际热钱与国际资产价格之间基本上不存在长期均衡关系,数月间的短期冲击与运动作战是国际热钱的主要运行模式;金融危机高潮之后,国际热钱开始聚集能量,对冲基金规模开始回升,石油与黄金成为其投机的重点,这意味着国际资产价格已经从底部抬头。因此,监测以对冲基金为代表的国际热钱,有助于我们监测国际资产价格走势和泡沫的形成,结合国内实体经济的供需状态,可以监测通货膨胀的抬头。The authors believe that relevance among the scale of mutual fund, the stock indices of some major stock exchanges and the price changes of some typical commodities is of the characteristics of time variant and the congregation of relevance will demonstrate the existing of asset price bubbles; there will not be balanced relations in the long run between the international hot money and the price of international asset and the short run impact and dynamic running is the main mode of operation of the internal hot money; after the peak of financial crisis, the collecting international hot money, the rising scale of mutual fund and the speculation focus of oil and gold demonstrates that the international asset price is bouncing back from the bottom. So, supervising on the international hot money, such as the mutual fund, will help us to supervise the trend of international asset price and the form of the price bubbles. And combined with the situation of supply and demand of the domestic real economy, it also can help supervise the rising of inflation.

关 键 词：国际热钱 金融危机 对冲基金 价格波动 大宗商品 

分 类 号：F830.9[经济管理—金融学]