改进灰色马尔科夫模型及其在水资源预测中的利用  

IMPROVEMENT OF GRAY MARKOV MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION TO WATER RESOURCES FORECASTING

作　　者：冯江浪[1] 

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学信息管理学院,四川成都610059

出　　处：《物探化探计算技术》2010年第1期109-112,122,共4页Computing Techniques For Geophysical and Geochemical Exploration

摘　　要：这里首先对灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型的算法进行改进,并将改进后的灰色模型与马尔科夫模型结合。通过对灰色系统预测数据的修正,既发挥了灰色系统预测精确的特点,又利用了马尔科夫模型对预测波动性数据准确的优势,对于在任何时间序列上展开的具有一定波动性的数据进行预测,精度更高。In this paper,we studied the arithmetical improvement of gray system GM(1,1) model,combination the improved gray model of markov's model and the betterment of the data that predicted by gray system.This theses develops the higher precision estimating system,and makes use of Markov's model to estimate fluctuant data.The data on time sequence and fluctuant can be predicted by the method,which got a very high estimate accuracy.

关 键 词：城市生活用水量 灰色系统 马尔科夫 

分 类 号：O211.62[理学—概率论与数理统计]