湖南省农业旱灾风险综合分析与定量评价  

Synthetic Analysis and Quantitative Estimation on Risk of Agricultural Drought in Hunan Province

作　　者：何斌[1] 赵林[2] 刘明[2] 周磊[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]北京师范大学民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2010年第3期1559-1562,1578,共5页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD20B02);国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAC18-B06);国家自然科学基金项目(NSFC40601091)

摘　　要：基于1960～2002年湖南省降雨资料，构建了干旱灾害危害性评价模型，并利用GIS技术对湖南省农业干旱度的空间格局进行了分析，进而依据自然灾害风险分析基本原理，对湖南省农业旱灾风险格局进行了分析，结果表明，湖南省农业干旱危害度在空间上表现出从西向东递减的趋势：农业干旱风险分布也表现出明显的东西分异，西部、西南和南部为高风险区，中东部为低风险区，山区通常为高风险区。Based on the precipitation data of Hunan in 1960 - 2002, the evaluation model on hazard of drought was constructed. And the spatial patterns of drought hazard were analyzed with GIS techniques. And then the pattern of drought risk was analyzed according to the basic principles of risk analysis of natural disaster. The results showed that the hazard of agricultural drought showed decreasing trend from west to east in the space in Hunan Province. The risk distribution of agricultural drought also showed obvious east-west differentiation. The west, southwest and south was high-risk area, middle and east parts were low-risk area and mountain area was high-risk area generally.

关 键 词：农业旱灾 危害性 脆弱性 风险 

分 类 号：S166[农业科学—农业气象学]