人民币汇率变动若干影响因素的实证分析  

An Empirical Studyon Several Factors Affecting RMB Exchange Rate

作　　者：杨晓龙[1] 时光[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南民族大学经济学院,四川成都610041

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2009年第12期29-31,36,共4页Journal Of Financial Development Research

摘　　要：本文采用协整和脉冲响应函数分析的方法,就国际贸易顺差、利率、通货膨胀率和外汇储备对人民币汇率走势的影响进行实证分析。检验结果表明,从长期看,上述因素均与人民币汇率之间存在稳定的均衡关系,贸易顺差越大、利率越高、外汇储备越多的情况下会促使人民币升值,但通货膨胀会促使人民币贬值。从误差修正模型看,误差修正项均具有反向调整能力,存在短期到长期的动态调整过程。从脉冲响应函数图看,国际贸易顺差、实际利率和外汇储备对汇率的冲击始终为负,通货膨胀对汇率的冲击始终为正。Using the Co-integration and impulse response function to analyze international trade surplus, interest rates, inflation rates and foreign exchange reserves＇effects on the RMB exchange rates. Test results show that these factors have stable equilibrium relationships with the RMB exchange rate and the trade surplus the greater, the higher the interest rate, the more foreign exchange reserves, will lead to appreciation of the Renminbi, but inflation will lead to devaluation of the Renminbi. From the error correction model, We see that the error correction terms all have the ability to adjustment, there are short-to long-term dynamic adjustment processes. From the impulse response function map, We see that the assault of the international trade surplus, real interest rates and foreign exchange reserves are always negative, the assault of inflation is always positive.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 收入 利率 通货膨胀 外汇储备 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]