走低碳发展之路:中国碳税政策的设计及CGE模型分析  

作　　者：曹静[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084

出　　处：《金融研究》2009年第12期19-29,共11页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(项目编号70803026);清华大学低碳经济研究院-低碳经济课题(L08E01)的资助;清华财政税收研究所对本文的项目支持

摘　　要：应对气候变化,中国需要走可持续发展的"低碳之路",这就需要实施政治上可行、经济上有效的环境经济政策。本文根据环境经济学的基本理论结合中国国情,探讨了基于污染量控制的排污权交易与基于价格变化的碳税机制的优缺点,得出碳税政策更适合当前中国国情的结论,并对碳税设计中的税基、税率设定与动态调整、中性税收条件下税收返还、减排激励与补贴以及碳税对居民影响及分配公平等问题展开了讨论。然后,本文基于2005年的社会核算矩阵对中国近期实施碳税政策进行了系统的动态CGE模型分析。It is necessary for China to implement politically feasible, economically efficient instruments to combat with global climate change and shift to a low-carbon development pathway. In this paper, the author applies basic environmental economics theory to compare quantity-based cap-and-trade and price-based carbon tax policy, and conclude that carbon tax is more appropriate for China in the near term. The author also discusses various designing factors for carbon tax reform in China, including tax base, tax rate and dynamic adjustment, revenue recycling, abatement incentives and subsidies and likely tax incidences and distribution impacts. Then based on China＇s 2005 Social Accounting Matrix, the paper uses a recursive dynamic CGE model to analyze the likely impacts of carbon tax on both economy and environment in China. The model simulations suggest that, carbon tax can effectively internalize carbon externality, and bring substantial co-benefits in terms of reducing traditional local pollutants and associated health damages, meanwhile the negative impacts on the economy can be restricted with appropriate tax rate regime. Furthermore, we also compare the welfare impact of carbon tax under two different revenue-neutral recycling regimes. The paper finds that if carbon tax revenue is recycled through lump-sum transfer to the households, though consumption will increase due to the cash incentives, the overall negative impact on the economy is larger. On the contrary, if carbon tax revenue is recycled through rebating other more distorted taxes in the second-best world, overall tax distortions can be reduced thus less negative impacts on the economy, but environmental benefits are slightly lower than the previous case.

关 键 词：低碳经济 碳税 CGE模型 中性税收 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]