山西省生态足迹诊断及动态预测分析  

The Diagnosis of Ecological Footprint and Analysis of Dynamic Prediction in Shanxi Province

作　　者：张亚群[1] 韩军青[1] 马志正[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西师范大学城市与环境科学学院,山西临汾041004

出　　处：《山西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2009年第4期110-114,共5页Journal of Shanxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(46071018)

摘　　要：本文运用生态足迹理论核算了山西省生态供需状况,并在此基础上,引进最小二乘法,通过MATLAB 7.0对山西省生态系统进行了预测.结果表明:该省生态足迹需求不断增长,而生态承载力不断减少,呈现严重的生态赤字.因此,建立资源节约型的社会生产和生活消费体系是山西实现可持续发展的根本途径.In this paper, we have utilized ecological footprint theory to calculate the condition of ecological supply and demand in Shanxi Province. According to the analysis we show that the ecological footprint demand is growing, and the ecological carrying capacity is declining unceasingly. At the same time, there exists a serious ecological deficit. Based on this, with the introduction of Least Squares Method, we have carried on the prediction analysis on ecosystem in Shanxi Province, and scientific software MATLAB 7.0 is the tool used to make the statistical analysis. Therefore, the establishment of a resource-conserving social production and consumption system is a fundamental way to realize sustainable development of Shanxi Province.

关 键 词：山西省 生态足迹 诊断 动态预测 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]