中国银行体系亲周期特征与金融稳定政策  

A Study on the Banking System Cycle of China and Financial Stable Policy

作　　者：苗文龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行西安分行

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2010年第1期67-82,共16页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

摘　　要：利用滤波法、谱密度分析法以及SWARCH法检验中国银行体系的波动特征及其与通货膨胀周期的内在逻辑,发现:无论是计划经济还是市场经济,银行信贷都具有亲物价周期特征;银行职工规模波动与物价周期具有较高置信水平的关联性,表明银行经营规模具有亲通胀波动特征;随着体制转化,银行资本波动的逆物价波动周期特征逐渐显现。这为我们治理金融稳定与货币稳定提供了重要思路:改进评估指标体系,科学计算金融失衡状况;金融监管机构加强合作,以更为对称的方式实施货币政策和监管政策,同时达到治理通胀和金融失衡双重目的。This paper has proved that the China bank system has the characters of cycle and has an synchronization relationship with inflation cycle by using techniques in H-P. spectrum and SWARCH. The empirical evidence supports that： weather in planned economy or market economy, bank credit has the character of pro-cyclicality; the wave of bank operation scale has the character of pro-eyclicality; with the change of financial system, the capital level of bank slowly show the character of pro-cyclicality. That provides an important method to maintain financial stability and monetary steady： we should more exactly evaluate the situation of financial disequilibrium by improving the index system; the financial regulation institutions should perfect the mechanism of cooperation to harness inflation and financial disequilibrium by symmetry policies.

关 键 词：亲周期 通货膨胀 金融失衡 稳定政策 

分 类 号：F123.9[经济管理—世界经济]