基于投入产出法的中长期电力需求模拟  

Simulation of mid-long term demand for electricity based on input-output method

作　　者：谭显东[1] 单葆国[1] 徐敏杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]国网能源研究院,北京100052

出　　处：《中国电力》2010年第1期1-4,共4页Electric Power

摘　　要：投入产出法能很好地研究经济系统中各行业之间投入与产出的关系,利用投入产出法模拟中长期电力需求,可以反映电力需求与经济增长的内在联系,模拟结果具有很好的解释性。提出了模拟中长期电力需求的思路及模型并详细介绍了具体步骤;根据我国政府在党的"十七"大所提的人均GDP翻两番的目标,设置了GDP增长的高、中、低方案,综合考虑三大需求的变化情况,以2005年投入产出表为基准,模拟了2020年全国电力需求,包括全社会用电量、各行业用电量、居民生活用电量。到2020年,全国电力需求在6.7万亿～7.7万亿kW·h;如果到2020年刚好实现人均GDP翻两番的目标,则全国电力需求约为7.2万亿kW·h。Input-output method can well describe the input-output relations between sectors of economy system, simulating mid-long term demand for electricity based on input-output method can not only reflect the inter relation between electricity demand and economic growth, but ＇also get the good explanatory results. Firstly the procedures for simulating mid-long term electricity demand were introduced. Secondly according to the goal of per capita GDP quadrupling that for 2000 up to 2020, three scenarios for GDP growth were set up, considering the changes of three components of GDP, based on China 2005 input-output table, the electricity demand in 2020 in each scenario was simulated, including the total demand, demand by sector, houschold demand. The simulation shows that the total electricity demand will be 6 700-7 700 TW·h in 2020, if the goal of quadrupling per capita GDP just be achieved in 2020, the total electricity demand will be about 7 200 TW·h in 2020.

关 键 词：投入产出法 中长期电力需求 经济系统 模拟 

分 类 号：TM743[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]