中国退耕还林工程对粮食产量影响分析与测度  

An Empirical Analysis and Estimation Effect of the Sloping Land Conversion Program on the Grain Production in China

作　　者：吕金芝[1] 王焕良[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家林业局经济发展研究中心

出　　处：《林业经济》2010年第1期78-89,共12页Forestry Economics

摘　　要：基于改善生态环境恶化局面的初衷而推出的退耕还林工程已实施近10年，工程的实施对我国的粮食生产是否有影响是很受关注的一个问题。利用全国31个省（市区）1997～2005年的面板数据，从不同的角度分析了退耕还林工程对我国粮食生产的影响。研究结论表明：退耕还林工程对粮食产量带来了一定的负面影响（大约0．0040）；对不同区域的影响不尽相同；对东部和粮食主产区的粮食产量负面影响较大。政策建议：根据不同区域的影响，需要采取不同的政策选择，如允许东部地区和一些粮食主产区的退耕地造林复耕，鼓励开展荒山匹配造林；适度扩大西部地区退耕地造林规模。Based on ecological restoration, the Sloping Land Conversion Program has been launched for almost ten years, whether its implementation on Gain Production has been affected on Gain Production in China has been arguing since its imitative. We use panel data of farmer？ incomes, production inputs and Priority Forestry Programs of 31 provinces from 1997 to 2005 in China, we find that： 1） the Sloping Land Conversion Program has been bringing negative effect on grain production in China or about -0.0040; 2） the Sloping Land Conversion Program has been causing different negative effects in different regions, the most bad consequences has appeared in the East of China and some dominated grain production provinces; 3） different policy options are required to be selected in different regions, for instances, the sloping farmlands that have been conversed to forestland are permitted to be reversed in the East of China and some dominated grain production provinces; the scope of the Sloping Land Conversion Program should be expanded.

关 键 词：退耕还林工程 粮食产量 林业经济 中国 

分 类 号：F326.20[经济管理—产业经济]