1961—2006年云南可利用降水量演变特征  

Evolutional Characteristics of Utilizable Precipitation over Yunnan Province from 1961 to 2006

作　　者：陶云[1,2] 何华[3] 何群[4] 段长春[1,2] 任菊章[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]云南省季风与气象灾害研究开放实验室,昆明650034 [2]云南省气象科学研究所,昆明650034 [3]云南省气象台,昆明650034 [4]云南省气候中心,昆明650034

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2010年第1期8-14,共7页Climate Change Research

基　　金：云南省气象局业务能力研究建设专项(Y200802);云南自然基金项目(2007D145M);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF-09-4)

摘　　要：利用云南122个测站1961—2006年逐月降水量、气温观测资料,依据高桥浩一郎的陆面实际蒸散发经验公式,计算了云南可利用降水量,分析了全球气候变暖背景下云南可利用降水量的变化特征,获得了一些有意义的结果:1)近50年来云南可利用降水量在春季增加,而其余季节减少,特别是夏季可利用降水量明显减少,导致云南年可利用降水量明显减少。2)云南可利用降水量除冬季年代际变化不明显,年际变化明显外,其余季节及年可利用降水量都存在明显的年代际及年际变化。3)从区域趋势变化看,云南大部可利用降水量在冬、春季以增加为主;夏季以减少为主;秋季东部减少,西部增加;全年可利用降水量东部、南部以减少为主,其余地区以增加为主。4)年可利用降水量在全球气候偏暖年以偏少为主,而在偏冷年则以偏多为主。Based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data of Yunnan＇s 122 stations from 1961 to 2006, the utilizable precipitation was calculated by means of Takahashi＇s evaporation equation. Its evolutional characteristics under the background of the global climate warming were analyzed by using the methods of regression analysis. The results indicate that the utilizable precipitation decreased in summer, autumn and winter season, especially in summer, so that annual utilizable precipitation also obviously reduced in the past nearly 50 years over Yunnan Province. The seasonal and annual utilizable precipitation all showed distinctively interannual and interdecadal oscillations except the winter utilizable precipitation which only displayed interannual variations. Regionally, winter and spring utilizable precipitation increased, and summer one reduced in most of Yunnan Province, and autumn utilizable precipitation reduced in the eastern but increased in the western of Yunnan Province; and annual utilizable precipitation reduced in the eastern and southern of Yunnan Province, but mainly increased in the rest areas. When the global climate was warmer, annual utilizable precipitation was lesser in most of Yunnan Province and vice versa.

关 键 词：云南 可利用降水量 时空分布 回归分析 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]