基于GH Copula的渭河与汾河径流丰枯遭遇频率研究  

Study on probability of encounter between abundant and low runoffs from Weihe River and Fenhe River based on Gumbel-Hougaard Copula

作　　者：傅玉勇[1] 闫澍旺[1] 丁志宏[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300072 [2]黄河水利科学研究院水资源研究所,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2010年第1期15-17,共3页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

摘　　要：在分析现有的常用二维理论联合分布模型不足之处的基础上,应用GH Copula函数方法构建了渭河与汾河之间年径流量的二维联合分布模型;然后,基于该联合分布模型,应用频率分析法对二者之间的径流丰枯遭遇频率进行了深入研究。研究获得了渭河与汾河年径流量之间变化的基本规律,其结果对黄河中下游水资源的开发利用和防洪减灾工作具有一定参考价值。Based on analyzing the deficiencies of the conventional theoretical 2D joint distribution model, a 2D joint distribution model for the annual runoffs from Weihe River and Fenhe River is b, uih herein with the GH Copula function method, and then the probability of the encounter between abundant and low runoffs from both the rivers is deeply studied with the frequency anaiysis method by that model. From the study, the basic law of the change between the runoffs from Weihe River and Fenhe River is ob- tained and the result has a certain reference value for both the development and utilization of water resources and the flood control and disaster mitigation for the Low-Mid Yellow River.

关 键 词：渭河 汾河 径流 GH COPULA 径流丰枯遭遇频率 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]