全球气候变化的几个关键问题辨析  

Discrimination on Several Key Issues of Global Climate Change

作　　者：陈泮勤[1] 程邦波[2] 王芳[2] 曲建升[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院资源环境科学与技术局,北京100864 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [3]中国科学院国家科学图书馆兰州分馆/中国科学院资源环境科学信息中心,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2010年第1期69-75,共7页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程方向性项目"应对气候变化影响的国别研究及策略"(编号:KZCX2-YW-305-5)资助

摘　　要：基于对全球气候变化事实与国家气候变化行动的分析,就当前全球气候变化科学认识和行动中的几个关键问题的不同观点与争论进行了辨析。指出:①应以比较确定的科学事实和"共同但有区别的责任"作为应对气候变化的出发点;②全球增温的幅度被高估了;③近百年全球变暖主要归因于人类活动的论断科学证据不足;④全球变暖的影响有利有弊,具体问题需具体分析;⑤气候预估不等于气候预测,气候预测尚待时日,气候预估的不确定性也非常大;⑥当前应对全球变暖的行动应采取"适应为主、减缓为辅"的战略。On the basis of global climate change facts and the analysis of the national climate change action, identification of a few key issues and debate of different points of view of the current scientific understanding of global climate change and actions has been made. It is pointed that： （1）as a start point, the relative reliable and certain scientific facts, as well as the principles of the common but different duty should be taken in order to response to climate change; （2）the magnitude of global warming has been overestimated; （3）over the past century warming is mainly due to human activities is lack of scientific evidence ; （4）effects of global warming pros and cons need a concrete analysis of specific problems ; （5）climate predictions does not equal weather forecasting and their uncertainty is very large; （6）the current action to address global warming should be taken to ＂adapt the main mitigation supplement＂ strategy.

关 键 词：全球气候变化 全球变暖 热岛效应 气候预估 不确定性 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]