对外贸易影响中国经济增长的动态分析  

Dynamic Analysis of Chinese Foreign Trade Influence on the Economic Development

作　　者：王博文[1] 刘仓[2] 郭亚军[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]西安财经学院管理学院,陕西西安710100

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2010年第1期26-31,共6页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：陕西省社会科学界重大理论和现实问题研究项目<陕西省果品贸易比较优势研究>(07C048)

摘　　要：运用计量经济学方法对中国1980-2007年相关经济变量时间序列数据的平稳性进行ADF检验,对修正后表现平稳的变量进行协整分析,研究在长期内是否存在稳定的均衡关系。通过构建协整方程、误差修正模型和Granger因果关系式分析各经济变量在长期均衡和短期波动中相互因果关系的影响。研究结果表明:在短期内经济增长更多受制于需求,而长期内取决于生产效率的提高。因此在继续重视出口贸易创造市场作用的前提下,要充分发挥外贸在增加要素供给和创造市场需求两个方面的作用。This paper tests the stationary of relevant Chinese economic variables from 1980 to 2007 by ADF test,and analyses their co-integration relation to decide whether there is a stable balanced relation among them.Then it analyses their long-term elastic relations by establishing a co-integration analyzing equation.It also researches their dynamic relations influenced by the short-term fluctuation by establishing an error correct model;finally it uses Granger causality test to specify the statistical causality between Chinese foreign trade and its economic development.The conclusion is that in a short term,the economic growth is mainly restricted by the demand,and in a long term it is decided by productivity improvement.The relevant policy suggestion is,under the condition of continually emphasizing the role of market creating ability of export trade,it should fully motivate the role of import trade,and to increase Chinese economic rapidly growth from two aspects of foreign trade as increasing key factors＇ supplies and its important role of creating market demand.

关 键 词：对外贸易 经济增长 动态分析 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易]