基于改进的BASS模型的服装产品生命周期研究  

Research of the Clothing Product Life Cycle Based on the Improved BASS Model

作　　者：胡觉亮[1] 何秋霞[2] 韩曙光[1] 季晓芬[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江理工大学理学院,杭州310018 [2]浙江理工大学服装学院,杭州310018

出　　处：《浙江理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第1期69-73,共5页Journal of Zhejiang Sci-Tech University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(10671177);浙江省钱江人才计划资助项目(JCO702016);浙江理工大学科研启动基金(0713682-Y)

摘　　要：为提高服装的销售预测准确度,通过产品的生命周期曲线模型,使得服装销售预测的定性分析与定量预测有机地结合在一起。针对目前服装产品生命周期曲线模型的局限性,引入改进的BASS模型,对服装产品生命周期进行研究。通过销售实例探讨改进的BASS模型用于描述服装生命周期的可行性,建立了以改进的BASS模型为基础的服装产品生命周期模型,并利用该模型对服装销售量做预测,取得了比其他模型更高的精度。To improve the sales forecast accuracy of clothes and seize the trends of clothing sales, the product life cycle curve model is applied, which is a good combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative prediction. In the view of limitations of current curve model for product life cycle, this paper introduces the improved BASS model to study the clothing product life cycle. Through a sale case, the authors discuss the feasibility by using improved BASS model to describe the product life cycle of clothing, and then establish a clothing product life cycle model based on the improved BASS model to forecast clothing sales. The result shows that the model the authors built achieves higher accuracy than others.

关 键 词：服装 产品生命周期 改进的BASS模型 预测 

分 类 号：F407.86[经济管理—产业经济]