研发投资动态多阶段决策模型及其应用研究——基于多期复合实物期权  

Research on the Dynamic Multi-stage Decision Model of R&D Investment and Its Application——Based on Multi-stage Compound Real Option

作　　者：王文轲[1] 赵昌文[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学工商管理学院,成都610064

出　　处：《软科学》2010年第1期12-16,共5页Soft Science

基　　金：教育部博士点基金资助项目(20060610048)

摘　　要：根据研发投资项目的高风险、高收益性以及分阶段资金注入的特点,首先阐明了实物期权理论对研发投资决策评价的适用性,然后建立了基于实物期权理论的研发投资动态、多阶段决策评价模型。结合案例进行了数值计算,验证了此决策模型在研发投资决策问题上的分析结果。对其中的参数给出了确定的方法并详细阐述了模型中各参数对投资决策的影响,使理论上的最优投资决策结果真正成为现实中研发投资决策者的重要参考依据。This paper firstly proves the applicability of real option theory towards R＆D investment according to R＆D investmentg characteristics such as high risk, high benefit and immix capital by stages. Then it establishes a dynamic, multi - stage decision model of R＆D investment evaluation. Besides, it provides empirical studies, proves that the decision model which is put forward in this paper is more effective and verifies the validity of the model and provides its parameters value as well. The influences of all parameters of the decision model of R＆D investment evaluation are analyzed. All of these make the decision model veracious and feasible in R＆D investment evaluation application.

关 键 词：研发投资 实物期权 多阶段决策 动态决策 

分 类 号：F204[经济管理—国民经济]