略论中国外汇储备面临的潜在资本损失  

THE POTENTIAL CAPITAL LOSS OF CHINA’S FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVE

作　　者：张明[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《经济理论与经济管理》2010年第1期19-23,共5页Economic Theory and Business Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(07CJL017);上海市首届"晨光学者"资助项目(2007CG09)

摘　　要：本文分析了中国巨额外汇储备面临的由本币升值汇率风险而导致的资本损失。文章从两个角度来研究该项损失:一是从央行资产负债表由于货币错配而招致的现实以及潜在资本损失的角度;二是从以一篮子货币或者一篮子商品来衡量的中国外汇储备国际购买力损失的角度。本文的结论是:中国央行资产负债表面临的资本损失是显著的;中国外汇储备国际购买力的波动显著高于市场价值的波动,尤其是用油价来衡量的外汇储备购买力波动相当剧烈。This paper analyzes the capital loss faced by China＇s huge foreign exchange reserve as a result of RMB appreciation. On the one hand, the real and potential capital losses from currency mismatch on PBOC＇s balance sheet are calculated. On the other hand, the international purchasing powers of Chinese foreign exchange reserve measured by one basket of currencies or one basket of commodities are estimated. Main conclusions are listed. First, the capital loss on PBOC＇s balance sheet is significant. PBOC＇s capital loss caused by exchange rate fluctuation in 2007 reached RMB 346 billion, which is over 15 times of PBOC＇s capital. Second, the volatility of international purchasing power of China＇s foreign exchange reserve is clearly larger than that of market value, especially that measured by oil price. To mitigate the potential capital loss, Chinese government should speed up the domestic structural reforms, promote portfolio diversification and increase the flexibility of RMB exchange rate mechanism.

关 键 词：外汇储备 资本损失 汇率风险 国际购买力 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]