旅游地游客量预测模型新方法初探——以贵州省为例  

New Exploration Research of Tourism Area Forecasting Model——A Case Study of Guizhou Province

作　　者：杨春宇[1] 彭礼红[2] 

机构地区：[1]贵州财经学院旅游管理学院,贵州贵阳550004 [2]杭州市统计局,浙江杭州310026

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2010年第1期136-140,共5页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(项目号:06CJY034);贵州省优秀科技教育人才省长专项资金项目(黔省专合字(2006)34号);贵州财经学院人口.资源与环境经济学省级重点学科资助项目

摘　　要：本文通过引入旅游地游客量变化的"速度"和"加速度"两个旅游学参量,构建了基于不同参量状态下的旅游地游客量量测公式;这些公式与不同的回归方程相对应,给回归方程式中的常数以明确的旅游学意义。该模型以旅游地生命周期理论为指导,并与其数学表达式——Logistic曲线模型进行对比研究,尝试探寻旅游地游客量预测模型新方法。文后以贵州省国内游客量为例,进行了实证研究,其结果与实际符合得较好。In this paper, by introduction of tourist change parameter notion--＂Speed＂ and ＂acceleration＂, author establishes tourist measurement formulas based on different parameters state. These formulas are corresponding with different Regression Equations, which means every constants in formula has its＇ clear tourism meaning. Author takes tourism area life-cycle theory as this tourism forecasting model guidance and makes comparison study with it＇s mathematical expression--Logistic Curve Model, tries to explore new method of tourist forecasting model, after that, author takes Guizhou province domestic tourists as an example to verify it＇s correction, the results is in line with the actual tourism area development process.

关 键 词：游客量 速度 加速度 旅游地生命周期 回归分析 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]