应用统计分辨原理预报害虫种群动态  

Forecasting Population Dynamics of Pest by Statistic Discriminatory Principle

作　　者：丁世飞[1] 陈健 

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学,泰安271018 [2]临沂市兰山区义堂农技站,临沂276013

出　　处：《应用概率统计》1998年第3期333-335,共3页Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics

摘　　要：本文应用基于Fisher准则下统计分辨原理，对山东省曲阜市1982～1994年棉花苗期棉蚜的系统观测资料进行了数量分析，建立了统计分辨数学模型：y＝－0．2359x1－0.0049x2，经对历史资料的回报验证，其历史拟合率为92．31％．将1995年观测数据作为独立样本进行试报，其预报结果与实际一致．According to of two-level discriminatory principle by Fisher rule,the authors analysed the data about the occurrence amount of Aphis gossypii Glover in cotton seeding stage for years of 1982～1994 at Qufu, Shandong province, and then deduced statistic discriminatory inodel.The results tested the pest data showed that the fitting rate is 92.31%, and that accuracy of forecast is right

关 键 词：棉蚜 预测 预报 害虫 种群动态 统计分辨原理 

分 类 号：S431[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]