工程项目进度-费用优化的占线风险补偿模型  

Online risk-reward model for time-cost tradeoff in project management

作　　者：倪冠群[1,2] 徐寅峰[1,2] 许晓雯[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学管理学院,西安710049 [2]机械制造系统工程国家重点实验室,西安710049

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2009年第12期141-146,共6页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70525004;60736027)

摘　　要：针对关键活动发生不确定性延误的项目进度-费用优化问题,从占线策略与竞争分析的角度,设计了占线预赶工策略,给出了策略竞争比,同时分析了一般赶工策略与离线最优策略的关系,得到了关于一般策略费用与最优策略费用比值的三条性质,进而证明占线预赶工策略是最优确定性竞争策略.在此基础上,引入风险补偿模型,设计了具有不同风险偏好的风险补偿策略,使具有不同风险偏好的项目管理人员可以根据自己的偏好与预期选择最优的风险策略.Taking into account the uncertain delay of work on the critical path,the online strategy and competitive analysis are introduced into time-cost optimizing in project management.The competitive ratio of the strategy is given,and the pre-rushing strategy is proved to be the best determinate one.The relationship between the general strategy and the optimal offline strategy is analyzed,and three properties are discovered.On this basis,this paper designs the risk tolerance strategy and proves its competitive ratio to help the project manager choosing the optimal strategy according to his own risk tolerance and forecast.

关 键 词：进度-费用优化 占线算法 竞争分析 风险补偿 预赶工策略 

分 类 号：F224.9[经济管理—国民经济]