基于灰色突变理论的块裂岩质边坡崩塌时间预测  

Failure Time Prediction of Slope Collapse of Block Rockmass Based on Gray and Catastrophic Theories

作　　者：田卿燕[1,2] 傅鹤林[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学土木建筑学院,湖南长沙410075 [2]广东华路交通科技有限公司,广东广州510420

出　　处：《华南理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2009年第12期122-126,共5页Journal of South China University of Technology(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：西部交通建设科技项目(2003-318-802-01)

摘　　要：为了有效地预测块裂岩质边坡发生崩塌的时间,基于灰色理论和突变理论建立了灰色-突变预测模型.首先运用灰色理论对声发射监测数据进行处理,得到预测数据,运用最小二乘曲线拟合展开,再通过微分同胚变换,转换为尖点突变模型的基本形式,从而建立了灰色突变预测模型.最后采用该模型对贵毕公路k79+380～k79+500右边坡的崩塌时间进行了预测,预测结果和实际崩塌时间基本一致,表明该模型可以有效地预测块裂岩质边坡的崩塌。In order to effectively predict the failure time of slope collapse of block rockmass, a gray-catastrophic prediction model is proposed based on the gray and the catastrophic theories. In this model, the monitored acoustic emission information is changed into prediction data based on the gray theory, and the prediction data are transformed into an essential format of cusp catastrophic model via the least-square principle curve fitting and the differential coefficient homeomorphous change. The proposed model is then used to predict the failure time of k79 ＋ 380 - k79 ＋ 500 right slope of Gui-Bi highway, and the predicted results basically accord with the actual ones. It is thus concluded that the proposed model is effective in predicting the failure time of slope collapse of block rockmass.

关 键 词：声发射 灰色-突变模型 块裂岩质边坡 崩塌 时间预测 

分 类 号：TU441.35[建筑科学—岩土工程]