澜沧—耿马地震带下一个强震活跃期的初步研究  

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH ON NEXT STRONG EARTHQUAKE ACTIVE PERIOD OF LANCANG,GENGMA EARTHQUAKE BELT

作　　者：石绍先[1] 付虹[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局,云南昆明650224

出　　处：《内陆地震》2009年第4期417-423,共7页Inland Earthquake

摘　　要：在震前对澜沧—耿马地震带大震复发周期为47年的研究基础上,确认滇西南地区出现了预释放加速段、一个孕震区和显著地震有序向源迁移的演变过程等这些大震孕育并进入中短期阶段的标志。并应用这些特征,对1988年11月6日的澜沧7.6级、耿马7.2级地震进行了预测,同时对澜沧—耿马地震带下一个新的强震活跃期的时间和可能发震的断层作了估计,提出了强震活跃期中大震孕育短临阶段预测可参考的思路。On the basis of researching large earthquake recrudescence period （47 years）of Lan- cang--Gengma earthquake belt, we conformed that there was signs such as accelerative period release in advance, evolution process of off springing earthquake area and distinct earthquake moving toward hypocenter orderly, which showed the off springing of large earthquake entered mid-short term period. The above characteristics were used to predict Lancang 7.6 earthquake on Nov. 6, 1988, Gengma 7.2 earthquake, at the same time, the time and possible fault of producing earthquake of Lancang--Gengma earthquake belt was estimated. The author put forward the train of thought referred to predict strong earthquake in short-impending period of strong earthquake active period.

关 键 词：澜沧—耿马地震带 强震活跃期 滇西南强震短临预测思路 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]