基于加速寿命试验的剩余寿命评估方法  

Remaining Life Evaluation Based on Accelerated Life Testing

作　　者：谭源源[1] 张春华 陈循[1] 汪亚顺[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学机电工程与自动化学院,长沙410073

出　　处：《机械工程学报》2010年第2期150-154,共5页Journal of Mechanical Engineering

基　　金：国家部委资助项目(203020102)

摘　　要：利用加速寿命试验对产品设备进行剩余寿命评估正在成为研究的热点,如何提高其评估的精度是其中一个非常重要的问题。针对目前加速寿命试验统计方法存在的将试验样品看作新品,把加速试验外推后的应力环境等同于实际工作环境,忽视现场数据等问题,从模型和信息量两方面着手提高寿命评估精度。通过考虑产品初始失效和环境差异的影响,建立更为准确的寿命模型。对加速寿命试验的试验数据和现场数据进行融合统计分析,使得评估数据中蕴含更为丰富的多源寿命信息,由此得到置信度更高的寿命评估结果。仿真对比结果表明,由于模型准确度的提高和统计信息量的增加,所提出的方法评估精度更高,效果更好。Remaining life evaluation of products based on accelerated life testing （ALT） is becoming a hot spot of research, and how to improve the precision of evaluation is one of the most important issues. Related tasks on remaining life evaluation based on ALT, however, exist some problems, such as regarding the samples as new products, taking the extrapolated condition from ALT as the real operated condition, and neglecting field data. In view of these problems, a more accurate life model is built by taking the impact of initial failure and environment difference into account. The model is statistically analyzed by fusing ALT testing data and field data, so as to increase much more multisouree life information within evaluated data. Simulation shows that, the result of remaining life evaluation based on ALT becomes more precise due to improving life model and increasing information.

关 键 词：剩余寿命评估 加速寿命试验 MONTE Carlo仿真 初始失效 数据融合 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]