城市化对深圳气温变化的贡献  

Urbanization-Induced Surface Air Temperature Change in Shenzhen

作　　者：司鹏[1,2] 李庆祥[3] 李伟[4] 殷红[1] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳农业大学,辽宁沈阳110161 [2]天津市气象信息中心,天津300074 [3]中国气象局国家气象信息中心,北京100081 [4]中国气象局国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2010年第1期110-116,共7页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200706036);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2006CB403707);国家自然科学基金资助项目(40605021);中国科技部专项基金(2005DKA31700-01)

摘　　要：采用经均一性检验的深圳及其周围台站的地面温度资料和NCEP/DOE AMIP-ⅡReanalysis(R-2)再分析温度数据,通过鲁棒回归(M估计)对气温趋势进行拟合,分析了1967—2005年和1979—2005年两个时间段城市热岛效应对温度的影响,利用再分析数据和地面观测数据的差异估计了1979年以来城市化对气温增暖的贡献。结果表明,20世纪80年代以来的30a里,深圳城市化对当地气温增暖贡献非常显著:1979年以来,城市热岛效应导致年平均气温增暖0.243℃.(10a)-1,占深圳总体增暖的36.3%;与再分析资料对比得到的城市化对深圳年平均气温增暖的贡献达到0.315℃.(10a)-1,大于分析观测资料得到的结果,占总体增暖的47.1%。说明城市化的快速发展是导致深圳城市气候增暖的重要因子之一。Based on homogenized land surface air temperature data at Shenzhen and its neighboring stations and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy （NCEP/DOE）At- mospheric Model Intercomparison Project （ AMIP ） - Ⅱ Reanalysis （ R-2 ） data, urbanization effects on temperature change in Shenzhen was estimated. The linear trends of temperature for both the observed and R-2 data were estimated by using the Robust Regression （M estimation）, then the contributions of urban heat island（UHI） to the climate warming were analyzed covering 1967--2005 and 1979--2005, respectively; and the impact of urbanization since 1979 was also expressed by comparing observed trends with those in the R-2 data. Results indicate that urbanization has very significant contributions to the climate warming in Shenzhen during the last 30 years. Since 1979, UHI has augmented the warming trend of annual mean temperature by 0. 243 ℃·（10 a）^ -1 ,which accounts for 36. 3% of the total local warming, but it is lower than the result calculated from the R-2 data, where urbanization induced an annual mean temperature warming of 0. 315 ℃· （10 a） ^-1 ,accounting for 47. 1% of the total local war- ming. Therefore, rapid urbanization is one of the main factors causing the urban climate warming in Shenzhen.

关 键 词：气温变化贡献分析 M(鲁棒)估计 深圳气候 统计分析 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]