基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的宁夏入境旅游客源市场预测研究  

Forecasting Inbound Tourism Market of Ningxia Based on Grey GM(1,1) Forecasting Model

作　　者：柳丽[1] 吴晋峰[1] 张芳[1] 吴黎围[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安710062

出　　处：《宁夏师范学院学报》2009年第6期86-90,共5页Journal of Ningxia Normal University

基　　金：陕西省自然科学基金资助项目(2005D12)

摘　　要：为了给宁夏旅游客源市场的规划发展提供决策上的参考,从拓展入境旅游客源市场方面,采用灰色理论构建了宁夏入境旅游客源市场的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,并通过各项指标的检验,得出模型的预测级别为好,并预测了未来5年宁夏入境旅游人数.可以看出,宁夏入境旅游人数正处于较快增长阶段,并已拥有较稳定的海外客源市场.In order to provide reference of the planning and developing for tourism source market of Ningxia, from the expansion of inbound tourism market, we constructed gray GM （ 1,1 ） prediction model of Ningxia inbound tourism market based on gray theory, the model level for the prediction is good through examining each target. And predicting of the future 5-year＇s number of inbound tourism in Ningxia. As can be seen, it is in rapid growth of inbound tourism stage and has a more stable source of overseas market.

关 键 词：灰色GM(1 1)模型 宁夏 入境旅游 客源市场 预测 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]