西部中心城市可持续发展风险评价研究  

Risk evaluation on urban sustainable development of western central city

作　　者：宋锋华[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学经济学院,乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2010年第2期22-28,共7页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区社科基金项目(编号:07JYB016)资助

摘　　要：西部中心城市的可持续发展是整个西部地区可持续发展的重要基础。随着近年来西部地区经济的高速发展,其可持续发展面临的风险也在不断加大。如何在不断推进西部中心城市的辐射和带动作用的同时,尽可能降低高速发展中经济、社会、和资源环境的风险已经成为西部各中心城市当前乃至未来一段时期需要着力研究和解决的重要课题。基于此,在阐述城市可持续发展风险概念的基础上,引入城市可持续发展风险评价指数并建立综合评价模型,从可持续发展风险系数和协调发展风险系数两个方面对乌鲁木齐市1995-2007年城市可持续发展风险进行了综合评价。研究结果表明,乌鲁木齐市城市可持续发展面临的风险总体上呈螺旋式下降趋势,但可持续发展面临的风险仍处于较高等级,协调发展面临的风险也仍然较大,这与乌鲁木齐作为西部国际化大都市的地位还不相称,作为西部中心城市的典型代表,这也在一定程度上说明,西部中心城市对生态环境保护、可持续发展、人口控制等方面重视程度相对不足,在发展经济的同时注重对环境的保护,用经济发展推动社会进步,才能尽可能降低西部中心城市可持续发展面临的风险,实现经济、社会与生态环境的协调发展。The sustainable development in the western central city is an important foundation for all western regions. In recent years, with the rapid economic development, sustainable development risks are also increasing. How to continue to push forward the western city of radiation and leading role, as far as possible to reduce the risks has become an important issue. This article puts forward the definition of urban sustainable developmental risk and the risk indexes system for the first time. Based on it, it also sets up the model of risk evaluation about urban sustainable development. According to the risk coefficient of sustainable and harmony and take Urumqi as the example, this article makes the risk evaluation and analysis on the sustainable development situation in 1995 -2007. The results show that, the risks to sustainable development on the whole in the city of Urumqi, was a downward spiral, but sustainable development is still at risk of facing a higher level, the coordinated development of the risks are still large, Being a typical representative in the western central city, this also shows that we pay less attention to the city of ecological and environmental protection, sustainable development, population control.

关 键 词：西部中心城市 可持续发展 风险评价 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济]