基于马尔科夫模型的乌审旗景观格局模拟与预测  

Simulation and prediction of landscape pattern in Uxin Qi using Markov Chain Model

作　　者：吴晓旭[1,2] 邹学勇[1,2] 钱江[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学防沙治沙教育部工程研究中心,北京100875

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2010年第2期158-162,共5页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家科技支撑课题(2006BAD26B03)资助

摘　　要：在遥感与GIS的支持下,以2000年和2005年两期30m分辨率的TM遥感影像作为基础数据,获取乌审旗景观类型的转化数据,确定相应的转移概率矩阵,应用马尔科夫模型模拟景观的动态演变情况并预测未来景观演变的趋势。结果表明:(1)从2000-2005年,居民地、草地和水域景观面积增加迅速,分别增加了32.26%、16.9%和9.83%。工矿用地景观面积变化不大,增加了0.46%。沙地、草地和林地景观转换频繁,其中草地增加了575.38km2,沙地增加了137.45km2,林地减少了444.58km2。耕地景观减少了121.82km2,主要是向草地和林地景观的转换;其它未利用地减少了81.14km2,主要是向草地和沙地转换。(2)利用马氏过程模型,得到未来研究区景观面积的变化趋势:草地、居民地持续增加,其它未利用地、耕地、林地、水域、沙地持续减少,工矿用地有较小幅度的增加。当到达稳定期时,各类景观面积百分比分别为:耕地占0.58%,林地占5.1%,草地占38.70%,水域占0.29%,居民地占0.22%,沙地占54.11%,其它未利用地占0.40%,工矿用地占0.60%。可见,该旗未来景观以城市建设用地尤其是居民地建设用地景观的面积增加为主;退耕还草、围封草场等工程措施的实施,使得耕地面积减少、草地面积增加;沙地仍然是未来景观的主要类型。In the aid of RS and GIS techniques, landscape transformation data was derived from TM images with 30 -metre resolution of Uxin Qi in 2000 and 2005. A transition probability matrix of the landscape was determined. By using the Markov Chain Model, variation of landscape pattern was simulated and future tendency of landscape pattern was predicted. Results showed that （ 1 ） From 2000 to 2005, areas of habitation, grassland and water area increased quickly by 32.26%, 16.9% and 9.83% respectively. Area of industrial and mining land increased by 0.46%. Sandy land, grassland and woodland transformed mutually and frequently. Areas of grassland and sandy land respectively increased by 575.38km2 and137.45km2. Area of woodland decreased by 445. 58km2. Area of cropland decreased by 121.82km2 converting to those of woodland and grassland, of other unutilized land decreased by 81.14km2 converting to those of grassland and sandy land. （2）Future tendency of landscape pattern was derived by using the Markov Chain Model. Area of grassland as well as habitation increased continually, of other unutilized land, cropland, woodland, water area and sandy land decreased incessibly, of industrial and mining land increased a bit. When it reached steady period, area proportion of cropland, woodland, grassland, water area, habitation, sandy land, other unutilized land, industrial and mining land were 0.58%, 5.1%, 38.7%, 0.29% , 0.22%, 54.11, 0.4%, 0.6% respectively. As for future landscape development, increase of city constructional land especially habitation is the dominanting trend, area of cropland reduces converting to that of grassland because of Conversion of Cropland to Grassland Program and enclosure of grassland, sandy land will still be dominating landscape in Uxin Qi.

关 键 词：景观格局 马尔科夫模型 模拟和预测 乌审旗 

分 类 号：Q149[生物学—生态学]