对货币供应、产出缺口在通胀传导中机制的研究  

An analysis on the transmission mechanism of money supply and output gap to inflation

作　　者：纪敏[1] 王月[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行研究局 [2]中国人民银行济南分行

出　　处：《中国货币市场》2010年第1期4-9,共6页China Money

摘　　要：随着经济全球化和金融市场日益发达,通胀的形成和传导机制发生了较大变化,即使存在较大产出缺口,宽松货币政策引发的通胀预期还是会推升上游初级产品价格,并迅速向下游传导。但该文认为,总需求仍是影响通货膨胀的重要因素。一方面,货币乘数顺周期内生,风险溢价逆周期内生,总需求低迷会抑制货币扩张的程度;另一方面,货币对需求的刺激程度也具有顺周期特性,总需求低迷时,即使成功扩张了货币,其对总需求的刺激作用也打了折扣;不仅如此,通胀预期虽然会推高国际大宗商品价格和资产价格,但只要货币政策保持稳定,这两种价格能否持续上涨终究还是取决于总需求。With the economic globalization and rapid development of the financial market, the generation and transmission mechanism of inflation has changed dramatically. Even with a big output gap, inflation expectation caused by easy monetary policy would still push up the prices of upper materials, and then transmit the effects to downstream products. However, according to this paper, aggregate demand is the key factor influencing inflation, On one hand, money multiplier is endogenously presented in a pro-cycle, and risk premium is endogenously presented in an inverse cycle, and the downturn of aggregate demand would restrain monetary expansion. On the other hand, monetary stimulus on demand is also presented in a pro-cycle. When aggregate demand is in the downturn period, monetary stimulus on demand will be weakened even with a successful monetary expansion. In addition, although inflation expectation will push up prices of international strategic commodities and assets, the increase in prices will eventually depend on aggregate demand, as long as monetary policy remains stable.

关 键 词：货币供应 产出缺口 通货膨胀 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学]