基于引力模型的旅游目的地客源市场规模预测模型研究  

A Forecasting Model of Tourism Destination Market Scale Based on the Gravitation Model

作　　者：万年庆[1,2] 张立生[3] 

机构地区：[1]河南教育学院旅游系,郑州450046 [2]河南大学环境与规划学院,河南开封475001 [3]河南财经学院旅游系,郑州450002

出　　处：《河南大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第1期45-49,共5页Journal of Henan University:Natural Science

基　　金：河南省软科学研究资助项目(082400450030;072400421250;072400430320);河南教育学院旅游管理重点学科资助项目

摘　　要：在分析他人研究成果的基础上,首先对旅游引力模型的两种形式:Grampon模型和Wilson模型进行了科学的修正,并以此为基础,推导出特定旅游目的地旅游市场规模模型,同时分析了引力模型成立的条件和功能.其次,以神农架为案例,构建了该旅游目的地旅游市场规模模型,并运用该模型进行了市场规模预测和市场等级划分.The paper, based on the analysis of the other researcher＇s fruits, firstly sets up the Tourism Market Scale Model of the tourism destination based on the amending of the two types of Tourism Gravitation Model： Grampon model and Wilson model; At the same time, the paper analyzes the establishing condition and the function of the model. Secondly, the paper establishes a tourism market scale model based on the former study taking Shen-nongjia as an example, forecasting the maker scale and dividing the market rank of Shen-nongjia. Finally, the paper points out the magnificent practice sense and theory sense of the study of the tourism market seale model.

关 键 词：引力模型 市场规模 旅游目的地 神农架 实证研究 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]