唐山市降水量序列变化规律分析  

Analysis to Precipitation Sequence Variation in Tangshan City

作　　者：时振阁 

机构地区：[1]河北省唐秦水文水资源勘测局,河北唐山063000

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2010年第1期164-167,共4页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

摘　　要：利用唐山市1956年-2006年降水量资料,分析该区域降水量变化情况。采用数理统计方法对降水量的年内变化与年际变化进行分析,年内降水比较集中,80%降水量集中在汛期,年际变化的极值比在4.0左右。采用Mann-Kendall非参数秩次相关检验法对降水量序列进行趋势分析,降水量呈递减趋势。对降水量变化过程进行变异点的识别与检验,1981年降水量过程发生显著突变。采用模糊假设检验法对降水量系列进行周期性分析,唐山市降水量变化存在40～50年的中周期。降水量是地表水、地下水的补给来源,研究和分析降水量变化特征,对制定水资源开发利用方案、合理配置水资源具有重要意义。With annual precipitation data from 1956 to 2006 in Tangshan,it analyzes the change of the regional precipitation. Mathematical statistics method is used to analyze the annual and inte-annual precipitation,and it is proved that 80% of the precipitation centralizes in flood season, the extremely ratio of inter-annual variability is about 4. 0. The result shows that the precipitation in Tangshan city appears in descending trendency through trend analysis by Mann-Kendall non-parametric rank correlation analysis. Through identification and inspection of the variation points in precipitation variation, it indicated that the rainfall process have changed dramatically in 1981. After analyzing to the periodicity of precipitation series by fuzzy assumption testing method, there is a characteristic of 40-50 years cycle of the precipitation change in Tangshan city. Precipitation is the supply source of surface water and groundwater, so research and analogy o the precipitation characteristics is very important to layout of water resources development and utilization scheme,and to the rational allocation of water resources.

关 键 词：降水量 时空分布 趋势变化 周期性变化 唐山市 

分 类 号：P333.6[天文地球—水文科学]