油气管道地震风险评价方法  

Earthquake Risk Evaluation Method of Oil and Gas Pipelines

作　　者：张华兵[1] 冯庆善[1] 郑洪龙[1] 周利剑[1] 吴晓宁[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油管道研究中心 [2]中国石油管道公司沈阳输油气分公司

出　　处：《油气储运》2010年第1期15-17,共3页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

摘　　要：从失效可能性和失效后果两个方面对管道地震风险评价的现状进行了总结,提出了新的计算方法和模型。通过计算管体应变超越管道允许应变的概率来获得地震引起管道失效的可能性,采用统计管道事故平均失效后果的方法进行后果分析,并通过计算获得了某输油管道沿线地震风险分布的量化值。该方法可用于指导管道抗震设计和管道运行期间的风险管理。Earthquake risk evaluation actualities for oil and gas pipelines are summarized from failure probability and failure concequence,and new calculation method and model are presented.Failure probability of pipeline induced by earthquake can be obtained through computing the probobility exceeded allawable stain of pipeline for stain of pipe body.Statistical method for mean failure concequence of pipeline accidents is applied to concequence analysis,and the quantitative value for earthquake risk distribution along pipeline is obtained through computing method,which can be used in guiding pipeline aseismic design and risk management for pipeline during operation.

关 键 词：油气管道 地震 风险评价 失效概率 失效后果 

分 类 号：TE973[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备] U652.4[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]