台风综合预报GDSS的研究  

Research on Typhoon Comprehensive Forecast

作　　者：邹宇[1] 郭朝珍[1] 

机构地区：[1]福州大学数学与计算机科学学院,福建福州350108

出　　处：《计算机与现代化》2010年第2期11-14,共4页Computer and Modernization

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金资助项目(A0710007)

摘　　要：以会商式台风综合预报为背景,首先,分析了传统会商式台风综合预报存在的不足。其次,针对这些不足提出了改进意见:针对参与者意见的集结问题,提出了融合有序综合评价和专家权值的群体偏好集结算法;针对会商要求参与者坐在PC前面的问题,引入了基于J2ME的手机专家;针对会商结论受主观因素影响较大的特点,引入了以各种客观预报方法为基础的客观专家。最后,给出了改进后的台风综合预报GDSS整体流程,设计并实现了原型系统。This paper is based on typhoon comprehensive forecast. First, it analyzes the drawbacks of traditional typhoon forecast. Second, it makes some improvements according to these drawbacks： it puts forward a preference algorithm based on sequential evaluation and expert weight to collect the group＇ s opinions; it introduces a mobile expert based on J2ME, which allows the attendant to take part in the negotiation meeting without sitting in front of the computer; it introduces an objective forecast expert based on all kinds of objective forecast methods. At last, it brings forward the modified typhoon forecast GDSS process and implementes the prototype system.

关 键 词：台风综合预报 GDSS J2ME 

分 类 号：TP311[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论]