基于耕地保护外部性的湖南省耕地保有量预测  

Prediction of Ensuring Supply of Arable Land Based on the Externalities of Farmland Protection in Hu’nan Province

作　　者：覃事娅[1,2] 尹惠斌[3] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学资源与安全工程学院,湖南长沙410083 [2]长沙理工大学土木与建筑学院,湖南长沙410004 [3]湖南财经高等专科学校财金系,湖南长沙410205

出　　处：《农业系统科学与综合研究》2010年第1期16-21,共6页System Sciemces and Comprehensive Studies In Agriculture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50878029)

摘　　要：在分析耕地保护外部性的基础上,预测了规划期间湖南省在保障粮食安全、经济发展和生态环境保护三大目标下的耕地需求量;根据现有耕地数量、规划期间可能增加量和减少量预测了耕地供给量;然后对耕地供需平衡进行了综合分析并确定了规划期间湖南省的耕地保有量:2010-2015年为353.17万hm2～375.67万hm2,2016-2023年为371.03万hm2～375.84万hm2。该预测结果可为湖南省土地利用总体规划确定耕地保有量目标提供参考依据。图1,表1,参15。Based on analysis of the externalities of farmland protection, the paper predicted the demand of cultivated land from the re- spect of food-safety, economic development and ecological protection, the supply of arable land after analyzing all factors which proba- bly made the supply of farmland increase or decrease in Hunan province, then comprehensively analyzed supply-demand balance of ara- ble land. At last the paper predicted the ensuring supplies of arable land of Hunan province during the planning are 3 531 700 - 3 756 700 hm2 for 2010 to 2015 and 3 710 300 - 3 758 400 hm2 for 2016 to 2023. These will provide important support to the land use planning in Hu＇nan province.

关 键 词：耕地保护 外部性 耕地需求量 耕地供给量 耕地保有量 湖南省 

分 类 号：F323.21[经济管理—产业经济]