太原市耕地资源动态变化及驱动力分析  

The Analysis of Dynamic Change of Cultivated Land and Driving Forces in Taiyuan City

作　　者：牛媛媛[1] 任志远[1] 杨忍[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安710062

出　　处：《农业系统科学与综合研究》2010年第1期123-128,共6页System Sciemces and Comprehensive Studies In Agriculture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40771019)

摘　　要：利用1949-2005年的统计数据,分析了太原市耕地资源动态变化过程,并选取总人口、全社会固定资产投资额、人均GDP、工业总产值、第三产业比例等指标进行主成分分析。研究结果表明:太原市耕地数量经历了较快增长—急剧减少—平稳减少—波状减少的变化过程,太原市各地区的耕地变化也有明显差异性;通过主成分分析以及建立太原市耕地面积与驱动力因子的多元线性回归模型,得到经济因素、人口因素和第三产业发展是影响太原市耕地变化的主要因素。研究内容和分析结论对太原市耕地资源可持续利用具有重要意义。图4,表4,参18。In this paper, based on the statistical data during the period of 1949 -2005, we analyze the dynamic change of cuhivated land in Taiyuan City. Besides, we select some indices including population, investment of fixed assets, the per capita GDP, the total industrial output value and proportion of tertiary industry to make principal component analysis. The findings show that the change of cultivated land area experiences such phases as fast increase, dramatic decrease, gradual decrease and fluctuant decrease, and regional differences of the change of cultivated land are distinct. By using principal component analytical method and establishing multivariate linear regressive model between the cultivated land area and driving forces, we safely draw the conclusion that three driving forces, namely economic factors, population factors and the development of tertiary industry, influence the change of cultivated land. The re- search and its conclusions will have great significance for the sustainable development of cultivated land use in Taiyuan City.

关 键 词：耕地动态变化 驱动力 主成分分析法 太原市 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济]