基于雷达和雨量站的权重校准法研究及其应用  

Research and application of weight calibration method based on radars and rainfall stations

作　　者：殷志远[1] 沈铁元[1] 彭涛[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,湖北武汉430074 [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《人民长江》2010年第2期47-51,63,共6页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40675070);2008年度科研院所技术开发研究专项资金(2008416007);湖北省科技攻关计划(2007AA301B57);中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所暴雨研究开放基金资助(0615;0617)

摘　　要：利用雷达测量降雨可获得流域面上的瞬时降雨分布,但数据有一定的误差,可利用雨量站实测资料修正。以湖北省白莲河水库流域为例,首先运用集对分析方法确定雷达估算降雨场的Z^I关系,然后结合流域雨量站点对雷达估算降雨量进行校准。在此基础上提出了一种基于雷达和雨量站点资料的权重校准法,通过雨量站确定流域内各网格的降雨量级,对各网格的雷达测量降雨量精度进行调整,以充分发挥两种降雨估算方法各自的优势,得到比较理想的流域面雨量,最后将其输入到三水源新安江洪水预报模型,与其他降雨估算方法进行比较,洪水预报精度有一定提高。Taking the basin of Bailianhe Reservoir in Hubei Province as an example, we apply the set pair analysis to deter- mine the Z - I relationship of radar - estimated precipitation field, and then calibrate the radar - estimated precipitation by the data of rainfall stations in the basin. We put forward a method of weight calibration for radar - estimated precipitation based on the observed data of radars and rainfall stations, which can exploit both advantages of radars and rainfall stations, namely, deter- mining the precipitation levels in the basin grids by rainfall stations and adjusting the precipitation accuracy of each grid by radar - estimated precipitation, and get an ideal surface rainfall amount of the basin. At last, the calibrated precipitation is input into the Three - source Xin^mjiang Flood Forecast Model. The result indicates that application of this calibration method can improve flood forecasting accuracy to a certain degree.

关 键 词：雷达定量估算降雨 集对分析 权重校准法 洪水预报 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]