考虑相关性的石化装置系统失效概率计算方法  

Calculation Method of System Failure Probability Considering Correlation in Petrochemical Units

作　　者：王恒[1] 赵建平[1] 吕岩 

机构地区：[1]南京工业大学机械与动力工程学院,江苏南京210009 [2]辽宁省阜新供电公司,辽宁阜新123000

出　　处：《石油化工设备》2010年第1期22-25,共4页Petro-Chemical Equipment

基　　金：国家863计划资助项目(2006AA04Z439);国家十一五科技支撑计划资助项目(2006BKA02B02)

摘　　要：探讨了两种相关失效的原因和机理,其一是某个起支配作用的失效模式引起2个或2个以上零部件同时失效,称之为共因失效,其根本原因可解释为环境载荷的随机性;其二是系统的多种失效模式之间存在相关性,称之为多模失效,其根本原因可解释为失效模式之间的相互作用。提出了一种全面考虑不同相关性的系统失效概率计算方法,既考虑了零部件之间的相关性,又考虑了失效模式之间的相关性,此方法具有更高的求解精度。The mechanism of two kinds of dependent failures was discussed. One was that a dominant failure mode causes multi-components to fail synchronously, which named common cause failure （CCF）. CCF was due to the random of environmental load. The other was that there were several kinds of relative failure modes,which was named multi-modes failure （MMF）. MMF was due to the interaction between the failure modes. A comprehensive method to predict failure prob- ability for system with CCF and MMF was proposed. The correlation of multi-components and multi-modes were considered, so the calculating result is more precise.

关 键 词：石化装置 相关性 系统可靠性 共因失效 多模失效 

分 类 号：TQ050.7[化学工程]