2010年我国经济形势展望  

Prospects for China's Economic Trend in 2010

作　　者：杨晓光[1] 程建华[2] 陈磊[3] 黄德龙 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院中国科学院预测科学研究中心,北京100190 [2]安徽大学经济学院,合肥230039 [3]东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院,大连116025 [4]中信证券风险控制部,北京100004

出　　处：《中国科学院院刊》2010年第1期8-17,共10页Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70871109和70673009)资助

摘　　要：2010年我国经济将在当前逐步企稳回升的基础上,继续保持平稳增长,预计GDP增长约为9.5%,工业增加值增长约为13.5%,城镇固定资产投资额增长约为24%,社会消费品零售总额增长约为20%,出口增长约为13.0%,进口增长约为15.5%,进出口总额增长约为14.1%,居民消费价格指数大约上涨2.5%。针对经济形势和未来社会发展目标,建议:继续发挥政府改善投资结构的引导作用;加强金融监管,防范金融风险;切实加大保障性住房供给,遏制房价过快上涨;遏制垄断行业人为涨价,减轻通货膨胀压力;深化收入分配制度改革,提高居民收入,提高消费在内需中的比重;顺应"低碳经济"发展趋势,持续推进"节能减排"。Looking ahead for 2010, it may be believed that China＇s economy will keep a stable growth based on the current gradual recovery. It can be predicted that the yearly GDP growth rate is about 9.5%, the growth rate of the industrial added value is about 13.5%, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in city and town is about 24%, the growth rate of the total retail value of the social consuming goods is about 20%, the growth rate of the exports is about 13.0%, the growth rate of the import is about 15.5%, and the total growth rate of the export and the import is about 14.1%, and the CPI will increase about 2.5%. In the light of the economic trend and the goal of China＇s social development, the authors propose the following suggestions： a） the government continues to play a dominant role in improving investment structure; b） strengthening financial regulation and control to prevent financial risk; c） significantly increasing the supply of welfare housing, restrict too fast growth of house price; d） constraining the artificial price-hikes in monopoly industries to reduce the inflation pressure; e） deepening the reform in income-allocation, enhancing the growth of household income, and raising the ratio of consumption in domestic demand; f） following the international trend of low-carbonic economy, keeping on propelling the policy of ＂energy-saving and emission-reducing＂.

关 键 词：经济形势 国际金融危机 经济复苏 预测 

分 类 号：F123[经济管理—世界经济]