微观交通系统仿真模型可信性评价  

Credibility Evaluation for Micro Traffic Simulation Model

作　　者：孙剑[1] 李克平[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海200092

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2010年第1期276-280,共5页Computer Simulation

基　　金：上海自然科学基金项目(07ZR14120)

摘　　要：交通系统仿真模型的可信性评价是合理、科学地运用交通系统仿真模型进行系统分析、预测以及辅助决策的关键环节。针对微观交通仿真模型开发者和使用者的不同需求,研究了交通仿真模型可信性评价内容及其与仿真模型校正、校核、验证和确认的关系;分析了三种可用于微观交通仿真模型可信性评价的方法:层次分析法、相似度法以及模糊综合评判。合肥市大东门区域的运用VISSIM软件通过实际案例分析表明,基于层次分析法的微观仿真的可信度评价方法是提高模型可用性的有效手段。Credibility estimation of micro traffic simulation model is the key procedure for carrying out system analysis,forecast and aided decision reasonably and scientifically by using traffic system simulation model.The content of credibility evaluation and its relationship with simulation model calibration,Verification,Validation and Accreditation（VVA） were studied according to different demand of model programmers and users.The Analytic Hierarchy Process（AHP）,resemble of degree method and the synthetically fuzzy judgment method were put forward which can be used in credibility evaluation.Finally,the VISSIM case study in Dadongmen district demonstrated that the AHP method was suitable for improving model usability.

关 键 词：交通仿真模型 可信性 层次分析法 

分 类 号：U491.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]