江淮地区气候变化对长江河口处径流量的影响分析  

Influence of Climatic Change in Jianghuai Region on Runoff of Yangtze River Estuary

作　　者：葛朝霞[1] 曹琨[1] 宋颖玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2010年第2期1-3,共3页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项基金资助项目(GYHY200706005)

摘　　要：基于江淮地区23个气象站1957～2005年水文气象资料，分析了大通站天然径流变化特点及影响因子，采用线性回归分析、相关分析、小波分析等方法探讨了径流量对气候变化的响应，揭示了江淮地区气候变化的若干事实及大通径流量对气候变化的响应——气温明显升高、变暖趋势明显且冬季增温幅度高于夏季、蒸发量减小、地表水资源损耗降低、降水量总体呈增加趋势，为合理利用当地气候资源、趋利避害提供了科学依据。Based on hydrological and meteorological data of 23 meteorological stations in Jianghuai Region from 1957 to 2005, this paper analyzes the changes of natural runoff characteristics and its impact factors of Datong Station. Linear regression analysis, correlation analysis and wavelet analysis are applied to discuss response of runoff to climate change. It reveals many facts of the Jianghuai regional climate changes and response of runoff in Datong Station to climate change. Air temperature increases sharply; warming trend is obvious and the temperature rise amplitude in winter is higher than that of in summer; Evaporation decreases and surface water loss reduces; amount of precipitation increases as a whole. It provides basis for rational utilization of the local climate resources and avoiding loss.

关 键 词：江淮地区 大通站 气候变化 径流量 蒸发量 降水量 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P468