中期降雨分级预报信息的可利用性分析  

Usability Analysis of Classified Forecast Information for Medium-term Precipitation

作　　者：初京刚[1] 周惠成[1] 张澎辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学土木水利学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2010年第2期4-6,共3页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50809011);国家"十一五"科技支撑基金资助项目(2006BAB14B05)

摘　　要：分析了中期降雨分级预报用于跨流域调水中的必要性和重要性，研究了大伙房水库流域中期降雨的分级方式，采用聚类分级法及误差特征值分析法对2001-2007年5～9月流域实际3～7d降雨资料与GFS提供的流域预报降雨量进行预报降雨分级统计，并分析了各量级降雨预报精度及在跨流域引水中的可利用性。结果表明，大伙房水库流域分级降雨预报信息基本达可利用程度，可为跨流域引水提供参考。The necessity and importance of applying the classified forecast for medium-term precipitation to the interbasin diversion are analyzed. Classification of the medium-term precipitation in Dahuofang Reservoir Basin is studied. According to the basin actual precipitation data from 3 to 7 days and forecasting precipitation released by Global Forecasting System （GFS） from May to September during 2001 to 2007 years, the classified statistics on forecasting precipitation is made by the methods of cluster analysis and error eigenvalue analysis. And the precision of precipitation forecast level and the usability of precipitation level forecast in the interbasin diversion are analyzed. The result shows that the classified forecast information for precipitation in Dahuofang Reservoir Basin can be used basically and it provides a reference for the interbasin diversion.

关 键 词：美国全球预报系统(GFS) 中期降雨 降雨预报 降雨分级 精度分析 可利用性 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]