财政支农、农村居民消费与农民增收的动态分析——以辽宁省为例  

A Dynamic Analysis of Financial support for agriculture,rural household consumption and peasant incomes-A Case Study in Liaoning Province

作　　者：张峁[1] 王青[2] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学经济学院 [2]辽宁大学

出　　处：《统计教育》2010年第2期29-35,54,共8页Statistical education

摘　　要：政府财政支出和居民消费的关系一直是经济界争论的焦点,文章基于1980-2007年辽宁省的时间序列数据,从宏观和动态的角度,运用单位根检验,Granger因果检验和向量自回归模型考察辽宁省财政支农,农村居民消费以及收入之间的关系,向量自回归模型的动态分析表明:农村居民收入和消费之间具有相互促进的正向联系,而财政支出的各方面对居民收入和消费的影响不尽相同,其中,基本建设支出对居民消费和收入都有负影响,即产生"挤出效应",而生产性支出对居民收入产生正影响,而对居民消费却产生"挤出效应",科技项目支出对居民收入和消费,先产生负影响,随着时间的推移,影响变为正;其他财政支出对居民收入产生正的影响,而对居民消费先产生"挤出效应",随后又促进居民消费。The relationship between the government finances spending and household consumption has been the focus of debate in economic circles, the article used 1980-2007 time series data of Liaoning Province, based on the macro and dynamic perspective, using unit root tests, Granger causality test and vector autoregressive models examine the relationship between the financial support for agriculture, the household consumption and people＇ s income in Liaoning Province, vector autoregression VAR model for the dynamic analysis shows that： rural people＇ s income and household consumption have a promote positive contact with each other, while the impact of all financial expenditure of the residents to income and household consumption are different, of which capital expenditure on household consumption and income have a negative impact, that a ＂ crowding out＂ , while production expenditure on the in- come generated positive effects, while household consumption is produced ＂ crowding out effect＂ , scientific and technological project expenditures on income and consumption, first have a negative impact, as time goes on, the impact becomes positive; and other financial expenses of the income generated positive effects, while have a ＂ squeezing out effect ＂ to the household consumption in first, and then in turn promote the household consumption.

关 键 词：财政支出 居民消费 向量自回归(VAR) 脉冲响应函数 方差分解 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济] F812.45